The Perils of Balkanization

Deputy Foreign Minister Virginia Tsouderou recently summed up the government’s hopes and fears in its relations with uneasy, instable neighbors.

A new Balkan order should be based on the same principles and attitudes that have made co-operation in the European Community possible. “This means that chauvinism and nationalist claims should give way to a convergence of the Balkan economies and should be replaced by respect for all ethnic groups,” said the Greek Foreign Under-Secretary, Virginia Tsouderou, early last month.

Greek Foreign Under-Secretary, Virginia Tsouderou

Mrs Tsouderou was addressing a crowded meeting organized by the Greek Political Organization and held at the Hellenic Chamber of Commerce. Mrs Tsouderou talked about Greek foreign policy in the Balkans, the risks and possible opportunities presented by the current situation in Yugoslavia and the role of diplomacy in securing peace in the area.

Her speech was delivered only a few hours after hostilities in the Yugoslav Republic of Bosnia-Herzegovina were reported to be escalating. The conflict followed an independence referendum carried out on the weekend of February 29 and March 1. 33 percent of the Republic’s population are Serbs. Strongly opposed to independence, they boycotted the poll. It should be noted that Bosnia had remained relatively peaceful during the six-month conflict carried out in the north of Yugoslavia, which had killed thousands and made half a million people homeless. The extension of hostilities southwards was an outcome the Greek government has long feared.

“The Balkans have become a bubbling pot of nationalist claims and religious prejudice. As such, the Balkan States appear to be an easy target to those determined to expand their economies and fulfill their national amb-tions,” Mrs Tsouderou said. “Within this state of affairs – of chaos and anarchy – Greece is trying to support and promote stability in the area.”

The Greek government has followed the break-up of Yugoslavia with careful scrutiny. Prior to the European Community’s decision to recognize the Republics of Slovenia and Croatia as independent states in January, Greece had maintained that the Republics of Yugoslavia should have been retained within a loose confederation of states to avoid further spread of hostilities.

“Our European partners did not take into consideration our warnings,” Mrs Tsouderou said. “Today in Bosnia-Herzegovina unrest is on the rise. A few people have already been killed. Only 59 percent showed up in the referendum, which arouses the question whether the majority of the population agrees with the republic’s claim to independence. Bosnia is heading towards instability.”

Mrs Tsouderou stressed that Greece had been consistent in its Balkan policy and that its positions had always aimed at enhancing “friendship, good neighborliness and co-operation in all sectors” on both bilateral and inter-Balkan levels. Greece currently holds that the remaining four Yugoslav Republics of Serbia, Bosnia, Macedonia and Mon-tenegro should come together under the same confederation. The Greek government believes that the total break-up of Yugoslavia will bear destructive consequences. “Long-term instability in the Balkans will give rise to various trends within the European Community itself, which will ultimately weaken the voice of the 12,” Mrs Tsouderou said.

She hinted, nevertheless, that the current Greece stance was more likely doomed to fail. The creation of a ‘New Yugoslavia’ depends on a number of parameters which look very flexible at the moment. It very largely depends on the willingness of the Serbs of Croatia, Kossovo and Bosnia to co-operate towards this goal. It also depends on political forces, both internal and external, which might enter the scene.

Mrs Tsouderou referred at length to the role that Greece “is called to play in the area”. She stressed that Greece, being the only solidly democratic and ethnically homogeneous Balkan State as well as a member of the EC and NATO, should promote democracy and stability in the area. She said that Greece must also protect its own interests which have been seriously disrupted by the situation in Yugoslavia.

Firstly, the Greek economy has been directly affected. “The losses are expected to be several billion drachmas,” Mrs Tsouderou said. Secondly, Greek territorial integrity has been under threat. “The Constitution drawn by Skopje is based on a 1944 manifesto which called for the unification of the geographic area of Macedonia,” Mrs Tsouderou said. Thirdly, Greece is called upon to ask for the protection of its ethnic population which is spread all around the Balkans, including Albania, Skopje and Bulgaria.

In this context, Mrs Tsouderou mentioned the efforts already made by the Greek Orthodox Church and the Patriarchate of Constantinople to take the ‘opportunity’ given by the collapse of the Eastern Bloc and act as an irresistible magnet of attraction for the Orthodox nations of the Balkans and the Eastern European countries.

Mrs Tsouderou referred to the so-called Macedonian issue. She said that the Greek government is willing to recognize Skopje as an independent state if its administration complies with the three conditions set by the EC on the Republic of Skopje. These conditions call on Skopje to denounce territorial claims, to cease exercising hostile propaganda and to eschew the name ‘Macedonia’, the use of which in itself signifies expansionist intentions. She said that the Greek government is willing to support a Skopjean independent state economically. “Today, 50 percent of the joint ventures in Skopje are Greek,” Mrs Tsouderou said.

Asked later by a member of the audience whether the use of the name ‘Macedonia’ might cause war between Greece arid Skopje, Tsouderou firmly denied such a possibility. “Greece will exercise all means of diplomacy to prevent such an outcome. We act on the principle of respect for the territorial integrity of other countries. Today we experience efforts made by the international community to solve problems in ways of diplomacy. We recently witnessed the ‘diplomacy of the Super Markets’ here.” Mrs Tsouderou seemed to approve the decision taken by Greek consumers to boycott Dutch and Italian products, calling the Hague and Rome to support the Greek position and adopt a tougher stance against Skopje.

Talking about Greek-Albanian relations, Mrs Tsouderou emphasized again that it was through diplomatic measures that the Albanian authorities had been persuaded to put an end to the attacks carried out in February against ethnic Greeks. It should be noted that the EC called on Albania to avoid such incidents and comply with its commitment to the decrees of the Conference on Security and Co-operation in Europe (CSCE), a violation of which was the banning from the general elections of the Omonia Party, which represents the Greek minority. Mrs Tsouderou said that the Greek government was committed to supporting the Greek minority of Albania economically and culturally. “A prosperous Greek community could act as a link establishing co-operation between the two governments,” Mrs Tsouderou said.

Turkey’s intention to ‘meddle’ in the Balkans was another issue brought up by the Foreign Under-Secretary. “Lately, Turkey has fervently associated its foreign policy with the Muslim communities in the Balkans.” The Greek government has been concerned by the possible strengthening of the Muslim communities in the Balkans stretching from Bosnia into Macedonia and across into Bulgaria. Greece fears that these communities will provide Turkey with a strong foothold in the area.

In conclusion, Mrs Tsouderou warned that a tough fight lies ahead for Greek foreign policy. But she granted that if it avoided falling into the trap of “indifference, egocentrism and naivety”, Greece would ultimately survive the risks posed by the nationalist claims of surrounding nations.


Virginia Tsouderou

Virginia Tsouderou first obtained a .Master’s Degree in Politics, Philosophy and Economics at Oxford University. At the University of Minneapolis in Minnesota she completed another Master of Arts in Economics, after which she went on to study Economics and Politics at Harvard University. In 1987, Mrs Tsouderou was honored as the “European Woman for Greece”. She has been elected a Member of the Parliament since 1974 and since the latest cabinet reshuffle she is serving as Foreign Under-Secretary. She has worked in the past as a journalist (1960-67) and as a civil servant for international organizations (1949-56). She is fluent in English and French.